Uncertainty – Debating Development Research

By Ian Scoones

When Mark Carney, Prime Minister of Canada, stood on the Davos stage and proclaimed that the current moment is not one of transition but one of rupture, everyone seemed to agree. But what new ways of thinking are needed to navigate this momentous rupture when geopolitical realignment, radical responses to climate change and new economic relations must emerge? Into this heady mix comes the idea of ‘development’, a perspective that emerged in the post-colonial period of the liberal, rules-based order, which is now seemingly gone. How then should ‘development’ be reimagined for a new world?

By Ian Scoones

Uncertainties are everywhere, whether emerging through climate change, financial volatility, conflict or war. All too often we don’t know what the future will hold. This presents a big challenge for conventional styles of economic development where predictive models, blueprint plans and standardised policies hold sway. What would an economics for development look like if uncertainties – where we don’t know the likelihood of future outcomes – are taken seriously? This is the focus of a new paper in World Development, where we argue for a major recasting of economic thinking and practice, reclaiming older approaches that put uncertainty centre-stage.

Tag: Uncertainty

Rethinking “Development”: Why We Must Embrace Uncertainty

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