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Three Implications of the Oil Shock for the Turbulent Political Economy of Development Cooperation

By Andy Sumner and Stephan Klingebiel

The 2026 US–Israel–Iran war has produced what the International Energy Agency describes as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Brent crude rose from around $70 at the end of February to a peak of about $140 in early April before settling around $100 as of early June 2026. In a new Brief we argue that the significance of the oil shock lies not only in the price increase itself but in its timing.

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Geostrategic Axes and Transitions in Development Cooperation

By José Antonio Alonso

The international aid system is going through one of the most delicate moments in its history, largely due to its inability to respond effectively to changes in the global environment. The crisis affects the broad universe of development cooperation, but it is particularly acute in the case of Official Development Assistance (ODA), its most clearly defined component and the one whose foundations have been most eroded. The decline in Official Development Assistance (ODA) in 2025 is merely the epiphenomenon of a deeper and more structural malaise. Not only have the sources of aid’s legitimacy weakened, as noted by Molenaers, but so too have the power structures, doctrinal underpinnings, and value system upon which the aid architecture has traditionally rested.

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The Double Legitimacy Crisis of the Old Aid Order: Four Scenarios for Development Cooperation and their Plausibility

By Nadia Molenaers

Development cooperation is not simply facing another cyclical debate about effectiveness. It is facing something deeper: a crisis of the very roles through which it has historically been justified. For decades, development cooperation drew its legitimacy from two overlapping functions. First, it was seen as an instrument of international influence: a way for states to build relations, project (democratic, human rights) values, and shape the international environment. Second, it was presented as a symbol of international solidarity: an expression of moral responsibility, redistribution, and a concern for global inequality.

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Three Ideal Types for the Future of Development Cooperation

By José Antonio Alonso

The international aid system is undergoing one of the most acute crises in its history. Although it is often portrayed primarily as a budgetary crisis—intensified by decisions such as the Trump Administration’s cuts to foreign assistance—it in fact reflects a deeper and long-standing structural malaise. The crisis is rooted in fundamental questions about the system’s relevance, legitimacy, and capacity to adapt to the evolving global order.

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The G7 and Global Development Architecture: Gradual Shift or Pivotal Moment?

By Andy Sumner and Stephan Klingebiel

In late 2025 the development cooperation architecture or system is being openly renegotiated rather than quietly adjusted. Will it be a gradual shift or will 2025 be seen in the future as a pivot moment or a tipping point?

The global development architecture is under the spotlight. This refers to the broad architecture of actors, norms, instruments and institutions that mobilise and coordinate resources, knowledge and political support for development goals. Within this system, Official Development Assistance (ODA) is a core financial instrument, primarily provided by OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) DAC (Development Assistance Committee) members. It functions alongside other modalities such as South–South cooperation, climate finance, philanthropic aid and private-sector engagement.

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